Saturday, August 11, 2007

Analisis Teknikal

Analisis Teknikal merupakan sebuah analisis tentang pergerakan harga mata wang yang didasarkan dari pergerakan harga mata uang itu sendiri di masa lampau.
Analisa teknikal mempunyai 3 prinsip dasar pemikiran:
1. Market Price Discount Everything
Iaitu harga yang tercermin dari chart atau grafik telah menggambarkan semua faktor yang mempengaruhi pasar.
2. Price Moves in Trend
Iaitu pergerakan harga tidak bergerak secara acak melainkan berlangsung dalam satu pola (trend) tertentu dan akan terus berlangsung sampai ada tanda-tanda bahwa pola pergerakan ini berhenti dan berbalik arah.
3. History Repeats it Selfs
Iaitu ada kecenderungan kuat bahwa perilaku para investor dan pelaku pasar di masa lalu adalah sama dengan masa kini dalam menyikapi berbagai informasi yang mempengaruhi pasar.
Grafik (Chart)
Pemakaian grafik atau chart adalah hal yang paling penting dalam analisis teknikal karena satu-satunya objek analisa teknikal adalah pergerakan harga yang dapat dilihat dari chart.
Beberapa jenis chart yang sering dipakai dalam analisis teknikal adalah sebagai berikut:
1. Line Chart



2. Bar Chart



3. Candlestik Chart



Garis Trend (Trend Line)
Trend atau kecenderungan pergerakan dalam satu arah harga adalah salah satu istilah penting dalam melakukan analisis teknikal karena pada dasarnya analisis teknikal sendiri dikembangkan atas sebuah asumsi dasar yaitu harga bergerak dalam sebuah kecenderungan (trend) itu sendiri.
Secara sederhana, garis trend (trend line) adalah sebuah garis yang menghubungkan sedikitnya 2 titik harga atau lebih dan kemudian diperpanjang hingga beberapa periode ke depan.





Secara garis besar garis trend dapat dibagi menjadi 3 yaitu:
1. Trend meningkat /up trend (Bullish Market).



2. Trend menurun/down trend (Bearish Market)



3. Trend mendatar/horizontal trend (Sideways/Consolidation).



Support & Resistance
Support dan Resistance merupakan istilah penting dalam analisa teknikal yang berfungsi untuk mengindikasikan batas atas maupun batas bawah dari pergerakan harga.
Support adalah merupakan batas bawah/range di mana pada titik/range harga tersebut akan timbul minat beli yang lebih kuat dari pada minat jual. Kondisi ini secara otomatis mengakibatkan terjadinya kelebihan permintaan yang akan meningkatkan harga di pasar sehingga menghentikan trend penurunan harga.
Resistance adalah merupakan batas atas/range di mana pada titik/range harga tersebut akan timbul penguatan minat jual yang lebih besar dari pada minat beli yang secara otomatis akan timbul kelebihan penawaran yang akan mengakibatkan turunnya harga di pasar sehingga menghentikan kenaikan harga.



Overbought & Oversold
Overbought merupakan situasi di mana pasar telah menjadi jenuh akan banyaknya permintaan sehingga permintaan semakin berkurang sementara penawaran semakin bertambah yang menyebabkan harga cenderung bergerak turun atau melemah.
Oversold merupakan situasi di mana pasar telah menjadi jenuh akan banyaknya penawaran sehingga penawaran semakin berkurang sementara permintaan semakin bertambah yang menyebabkan harga cenderung bergerak naik atau menguat.
Chart Pattern
Grafik nilai tukar mata uang mempunyai beberapa pola pergerakan yang dapat digunakan sebagai tanda perubahan suatu trend tertentu.
Pada dasarnya ada 2 golongan besar jenis pola yang mungkin terjadi yaitu:
1. Reversal Pattern
Pola ini menunjukkan adanya perubahan trend, misalnya harga yang bergerak dalam uptrend berubah menjadi downtrend atau sebaliknya harga yang bergerak dalam downtrend berubah menjadi uptrend.
Reversal pattern mempunyai beberapa pola pergerakan sebagai berikut:
a. Double Tops



b. Double Bottoms



c. Head and Shoulders top reversal



d. Head and Shoulders bottom reversal



e. Falling Wedge



f. Rising Wedge



g. Diamond Pattern



2. Continuation Pattern
Pola ini menunjukkan adanya perubahan trend sementara yang dilanjutkan dengan perubahan ke trend awal yang dominan. Misalnya harga bergerak dalam uptrend kemudian berubah menjadi downtrend (retrace) dan meneruskan lagi uptrend sebelumnya atau sebaliknya.
Continuation pattern mempunyai beberapa pola pergerakan sebagai berikut:
a. Bullish Flags



b. Bearish Flags



c. Symmetrical Triangles or Pennants
d. Descending Triangle
e. Ascending Triangle



f. Cup and Saucer



Selain pola pergerakan chart seperti di atas, ada pula suatu pola unik yang disebut sebagai gap. Suatu chart membentuk gap apabila terdapat jarak atau celah antara 2 chart yang saling berdekatan yaitu jika nilai low dari chart sebelumnya lebih tinggi dari nilai high pada chart berikutnya atau sebaliknya atau jika nilai high dari chart sebelumnya lebih rendah dari low pada chart berikutnya.
Ada 3 bentuk utama dari gap yaitu:
a. Breakaway gap
b. Measuring gap
c. Exhausting gap



Indikator Teknikal
Indikator merupakan alat bantu utama yang digunakan dalam analisa chart. Secara garis besar ada 3 jenis indikator yaitu:
1. Price Momentum Indicator (Oscillator)
Jenis indikator ini digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi situasi oversold atau overbought. Momentum indikator juga digunakan untuk melihat apakah suatu trend masih akan berlanjut atau semakin melemah.
Contoh indikator:
- Stochastic Oscillator
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- CommodityChannel Index (CCI)
2. Trend Following Indicator
Indikator ini digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi awal dan akhir suatu trend atau kapan suatu trend akan berubah sehingga dapat diketahui kapan waktu terbaik untuk membuka dan menutup posisi.
Contoh indikator:
- Moving Average (MA)
- Moving Average Convergence - Divergence (MACD)
- Directional Movements Index (DMI)
- Parabolic SAR
3. Volatility Indicator
Indikator ini digunakan untuk melihat kekuatan pasar yang dilihat dari fluktuasi harga dalam satu periode waktu tertentu. Pasar dikatakan memiliki volatility yang tinggi jika pergerakan harga berlangsung naik turun secara tajam atau sangat fluktuatif di mana terjadi selisih harga yang besar antara harga tertinggi dan terendah.
Contoh indikator: - Bollinger Bands

Artikel Lain:

Technical Candlestick

The Art of Candlestick Charting

Using Indicator to Identify Trends

Support and Resistance
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Forex (FOReign EXchange market)

Forex (Foreign Exchange Market)

Forex is an inter-bank market that took shape in 1971 when global trade shifted from fixed exchange rates to floating ones. This is a set of transactions among forex market agents involving exchange of specified sums of money in a currency unit of any given nation for currency of another nation at an agreed rate as of any specified date. During exchange, the exchange rate of one currency to another currency is determined simply: by supply and demand – exchange to which both parties agree

Forex is an inter-bank market that took shape in 1971 when global trade shifted from fixed exchange rates to floating ones. This is a set of transactions among forex market agents involving exchange of specified sums of money in a currency unit of any given nation for currency of another nation at an agreed rate as of any specified date. During exchange, the exchange rate of one currency to another currency is determined simply: by supply and demand – exchange to which both parties agree.

The scope of transactions in the global currency market is constantly growing, which is due to development of international trade and abolition of currency restrictions in many nations. Global daily conversion transactions came to $1,982 billion in mid-1998 (the London market accounted for some 32% of daily turnover; the New York market exchanged approx. 18%, and the German market, 10%). Not only the scope of transactions but also the rates that mark the market development are impressive: in 1977, the daily turnover stood at five billion U.S. dollars; it grew to 600 billion U.S. dollars over ten years – to one trillion in 1992. Speculative transactions intended to derive profit from jobbing on the exchange rate differences make up nearly 80% of total transactions. Jobbing attracts numerous participants – both financial institutions and individual investors.

With the highest rates of information technology development in the last two decades, the market itself changed beyond recognition. Once surrounded with a halo of caste mystique, the foreign exchange dealer’s profession became almost grasroots. Forex transactions that used to be the privilege of the biggest monopolist banks not so long ago are now publicly accessible thanks to e-commerce systems. And the foremost banks themselves also often prefer trade in electronic systems over individual bilateral transactions. E-brokers now account for 11% of the forex market turnover. The daily scope of transactions of the biggest banks (Deutsche Bank, Barclays Bank, Union Bank of Switzerland, Citibank, Chase Manhattan Bank, Standard Chartered Bank) reaches billions of dollars.

The FOREX market as a place where to apply one’s personal financial, intellectual and psychic power is not designed for attempts at catching a bluebird there. Sometimes someone manages to do so but for a short time only. The key advantage of a forex market is that one can succeed there just by the strength of one’s intelligence.

Another essential feature of the FOREX market, no matter how strange it might seem, is its stability. Everybody knows that sudden falls are very typical of the financial market. However, unlike the stock market, the FOREX market never falls. If shares devalue it means a collapse. But if the dollar slumps, that only means that another currency gets stronger. For instance, the yen strengthened by a quarter against the dollar late in 1998. On some days dollar fell by dozens percentage points. However, the market did not collapse anywhere; trading continued in the usual manner. It is here that the market and the related business stability lie - currency is an absolutely liquid commodity and will be always traded in.

The FOREX market is a 24-hour market that does not depend on certain business hours of foreign exchanges; trade takes place among banks located in different corners of the globe. Exchange rates a`re so flexible that significant changes happen quite frequently, which enables to make several transactions every day. If we have an elaborate and reliable trade technology we can make a business, which no other business can match by efficiency. It is not without reason that the pivotal banks buy expensive electronic equipment and maintain the staffs of hundreds of traders operating in different sectors of the FOREX market.

The starting costs of joining this business are very low now. Actually, it costs several thousands of dollars to take a course of initial training, to buy a computer, to purchase an information service and to create a deposit; no real business can be established with this money. With excessive offers of services, finding a reliable broker is also quite a real thing. The rest depends on the trader himself or herself. Everything depends on you personally, as in no other area of business now.

The main thing the market will require for successful operations is not the quantity of money you will enter it with – the main thing is the ability to constantly focus on studying the market, understanding its mechanisms and participants’ interests; this is constant improvement of one’s trade approaches and their disciplined implementation. Nobody has achieved success in that market by forcing one’s way with one’s capital atilt. The market is stronger than anything else; it is even stronger than central banks with their huge foreign exchange reserves. George Soros, a national hero of the FOREX market, did not win the Bank of England at all, as many of us believe – he made the right guess that, with existing contradictions inherent in the European financial system, there were plenty of problems and interests that would not allow to hold the pound. That’s exactly what happened. The Bank of England, having spent nearly $20 billion to maintain the pound rate, jacked it up, by giving it in to the market. The market settled this problem, and Soros got his billion.

The global monetary system has gone a long way during thousands of years of the human history, but it is surely experiencing the most exciting and earlier unthinkable changes. The two main changes determine a new image of the global monetary system: